Adaptation to climate change and ecological networks: research priorities

Peter Bos and Sander van Opstal, Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, the Netherlands

SUMMARY: Ecological networks are potentially an important element of climate change adaptation strategies, but further exploration of its applicability is needed.

Adaptation to climate change is an important area for the Convention on Biological Diversity for 3 reasons :
- Adaptation activities to climate change will be required in most countries and in most sectors. Their impact at the national level is likely to be maximized as part of an overall approach that includes national biodiversity strategies and action plans. Therefore adaptation activities involve a broader approach to sustainable development by explicitly including land degradation and desertification, climate change, and the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity;
- Although adaptation activities may be necessary to reduce the impacts of climate change on human well being, they may have either beneficial or detrimental impacts on biodiversity. These potential impacts need further in-depth examination so that sound guidance can be provided to Parties, Governments, international organizations and other bodies;
- Biodiversity by itself is a necessary component of a climate change adaptation strategy. The degree of ecosystem resilience—which in turn is dictated by biodiversity structure and function—is an essential element of social-ecological systems if they are to maintain their adaptive capacity.

Therefore, adaptation and biodiversity are highly interlinked as more resilient ecosystems may be better able to cope with climate change while providing essential services to society. The ecological network approach is one of the more important tools to respond to the need for pro-active and flexible instruments to counteract the effects of climate change. It is not sufficient to protect nature within individual protected areas when the threats, such as human activities and climate change, take place on a much wider scale. A more spatial approach, distinguishing between core areas with high biodiversity values, necessary corridors and buffer zones is needed. Within Europe therefore work takes place to develop national ecological networks as well as the Pan-European Ecological Network. Within the EU there is growing recognition that in the light of future pressures and changes, especially from predicted climate change, it may be necessary to ensure the resilience of the NATURA 2000 network by developing its connectivity. The ecological network approach can provide a good framework for interactive, participatory measures. That function requires communication of the positive opportunities of ecological networks for long-term solutions that take into account the ecological as well as the social-economical interests of a region. There are still many questions about the exact effects of climate change in different regions, and the ways in which an ecological network approach can be an effective part of an adaptation strategy.

Issues that need further research and exploration include:
- A monitoring system of target species and ecosystems is necessary, allowing for the identification of long-term changes and trends (as for example SynBioSys Europe).
- Related to this work, a good analysis of ecological aspects, incorporating drivers, pressures and responses of target-species and ecosystems (especially to the diverse aspects of climatic change) is necessary. Identify and assess hazards and risk to biodiversity in protected areas. Identify minimum viable population size. Insight into the dynamics of species, interactions between species, interactions between biotic and non-biotic factors.
- Develop, test and improve models that predict changes in biodiversity in response to climate change. In particular identify potential areas in Europe where biodiversity would change most. Identify the degree to which biodiversity is really influenced by climate change instead of other factors.
- Enhance understanding of ecological resilience. Identification of the major factors that contribute to ecosystem resilience under the current and expected impacts of climate change, and of particular adaptation options.
- Assessment of the potential consequences for biodiversity of selected adaptation options, including ecological networks.
- Another priority is the study of the permeability of landscapes for species that are dependent of migration and/or dispersal, and the further development of scientific theories as the metapopulation theory (Hansky and Opdam), and its application in a large group of ecosystem-types.
- Enhance understanding of past, current and future dispersal and migration of species under climate change in fragmented landscapes.
- To support this application, the further development of scientific models, based on the metapopulation-theory as LARCH, GREENVEINS, BIOPRESS and others, delivering important impulses for spatial planning and the planning of ecological networks on several levels (landscape, national, international).
- Develop science-based plans for the adaptation and development of networks of protected areas, taking into account of potential changes in climate.
- Identify, improve the understanding of, and develop methods to conserve ecosystems that potentially buffer against climate change, such as old growth forests and wetlands.
- Strengthen the scientific foundation for the specification of protection regimes: understand how to manage, maintain and if necessary restore the favorable condition of protected areas.
- Understand how to design and manage buffer zones around protected areas so that they help to maintain ecological integrity within the protected areas.
- As the network approach relies on other sectors as agriculture, forestry and water conservation, research is needed into the possibilities (and impossibilities) for the integration of these functions in core-areas and buffer zones. Research into new forms of cooperation in order to reconcile different soil and landscape use requirements in core areas and buffer zones, and develop participative use systems.
- Understand how EU policies such as the CAP, CFP etc influence biodiversity all over Europe.
- How can the stewards of biodiversity (farmers, foresters, fishermen, hunters, land owners) be rewarded for providing ecosystem services?
- Develop diagnostical-instruments that allow identifying the consequences of spatial changes on the conservation state of species and ecosystems.
- Finally research related to implementation strategies and communication with stakeholders and the general public is urgently needed.

These research priorities are cited/ adapted from EPBRS Lesvos meeting, several National Bioplatform- action plans, Dutch research priorities for Ecological networks and climatic change.