Martin Sykes exhorts us to monitor relevant data, but to define relevance we must think about the mechanisms by which global change will impact biodiversity. The focus usually falls on direct temperature effects, but I suspect changes in the rainfall/evapotranspiration balance will have a greater impact on many taxa. The problem is that the spatial forecasting of this balance is even more uncertain than for temperature. However, it is still important to gather information on the response of species to water status. Predicting northward shifts in populations needs to take account of spatial variability in soils and river-catchment attributes, in addition to temporal changes in water balances and mean surface temperatures. As our estimates of the changing climate improve, then it should become feasible to model regional hydrological regimes and identify areas that will go beyond the hydrological niche of a given species, but more ecohydrological research and monitoring are required now to achieve that goal in the future.

David Gowing


-----Original Message-----
From: adpatationsites Listmanager
[mailto:listmanager@lawe.nerc-lancaster.ac.uk]
Sent: 31 August 2005 14:54
Subject: Re: Lessons from the Mediterranean

From: "Martin Sykes"

As a modeller trying to assess impacts of climate (and other global
change drivers) on ecosystems and biodiversity - one of our major
problems is data (digital and otherwise)or the lack of it. I strongly
support the gathering of a wide range of data, both experimental and
observational - But I do not advocate collecting data just for the sake
of collecting data, which has happened in the past. It's time that
modellers and those making predictions of the future discussed and
influenced the gathering of data, so that it is relevant both to the
questions asked but also relevant to the models.

Relevance is everything

Martin Sykes




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