SUBJECT: Fuzzy Management
AUTHOR: William Silvert
DATE: 16th April 2003

Martin's call to scientists to become RASKILs (a slightly more pronouncable acronym) prompts me to bring up one of my pet interests, the use of fuzzy logic in environmental decision-making. Although one sometimes sees headlines in business magazines advising ambitious executives to be very precise, as "managers don't appreciate fuzzy logic", the reality is that
decision-making in a complex environment can best be understood as an exercise in fuzzy control theory.

For example, a fuzzy rule might be "IF a fish stock is endangered THEN suspend fishing". "Endangered" is a fuzzy term and it can take a long time for scientists to agree about it, but the fuzzy rule can be interpreted to state that if 4 out of 10 scientists think that the stock is endangered, reduce fishing pressure by 40%. Real applications tend of course to be much more sophisticated than this, but the language of biodiversity is pretty fuzzy to begin with, and trying to implement solutions only with precise numerical measurements may not be very effective.

A contribution by:

William Silvert
Instituto de Investigacao das Pescas e do Mar
Postal address Av. de Brasilia, s/n
1449-006 Lisboa
Portugal